Death Calculator Site Predicts Your Chances of Death (Aug. 28, 2009) — If you want to know the chances and cause of your death in the near future, then log on to

cause-of-dathA new Web site,, allows users to query publicly available data from the United States and Europe, and compare mortality risks by gender, age, cause of death and geographic region.

The website developed by researchers and students at Carnegie Mellon University, not only gives the risk of dying within the next year, but it also ranks the probable causes and allows for quick side-by-side comparison between groups.

“This is the only place to look,” said Paul Fischbeck, site developer and professor of social and decision sciences and engineering and public policy (EPP) at Carnegie Mellon.

“Most Americans don’t have a particularly good understanding of their own mortality risks, let alone ranking of their relevant risks,” said David Gerard, a former EPP professor at Carnegie Mellon who is now an associate professor of economics at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wis.

They found that beyond infancy, the risk of dying increases annually at an exponential rate. When it comes to dying within the year, it turns out there are dramatic differences between comparative groups:

For every age group, men have a much higher annual death risk than women. For 20 year olds, the risk is 2.5 to three times greater. For heart disease and cancer, U.S. blacks have a much higher death risk than U.S. whites. For 20-year-old males, 80 percent of their death risks are from accidents, homicides and suicides.

“It’s much easier to make a persuasive argument when you have the facts to back it up, and this site provides all sides with the facts,” Fischbeck said.

One thought on “Death Calculator Site Predicts Your Chances of Death

  • January 6, 2012 at 5:34 am


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